The GOP may have won the battle, but the war's far from over

Mark my words: The next 180-ish days will be the most important in the future of modern Republican politics.

I’ll admit, this is NOT the post-election autopsy I thought I’d be writing right now. In fact, I even started to shell out a different post — one that I thought would have, in some ways, brought full circle the decision I made several years ago to focus less on political consulting and more on the nonprofit/corporate side of Phoenix Rising in recent years.

Instead, I’ve largely spent the last few days reviewing as much data and reading as much as I can about why now-President Elect Donald Trump recorded such a decisive victory last Tuesday. Interestingly enough, the answer was right under my nose — and it was even something I’ve written about extensively over the years!

In the infamous words of lauded Democratic strategist James Carville:

Perhaps my jadedness has turned me into an establishment cynic, but my biggest miscalculation was having enough faith in the American people to focus on what matters most at the ballot box. We always knew it was going to be a change election — what we didn’t know was whether that change would come in the form of new policies for tackling issues like inflation & the economy, or in the form of new leadership & a return to decency in Washington, D.C. The voters chose the former — electing a convicted criminal to the job he refused to vacate just four years ago — suggesting that once again, the issues trumped everything (pun intended).

And, ultimately, that’s a good thing! I thought that I’d be writing about the death of the Republican Party this week. About the need to rebuild from the ashes (like a Phoenix, get it?) into a stronger, more adaptable organization that better suits the needs of 2020s America. Clearly, I’m not doing either of those things.

I’m thrilled that we do not have another four years of Democratic leadership in Washington. As a lifelong, card-carrying Republican, I truly believe the country will be better off with a return to conservative principles. Already, the Federal Reserve has cut interest rates another quarter-point — meaning that Americans looking to buy houses and cars (like me) will be able to take out loans with lower interest rates in 2025 than in recent years. The stock market soared in the aftermath of Trump’s election, with the S&P 500 briefly reaching 6,000 and the Dow hitting 44,000 for the first time.

But that doesn’t mean it’ll be all smooth sailing from here on out — nor am I wrong to be concerned about the future of the Republican Party under Trump and his acolytes. Mark my words: The next 180-ish days will be the most important in the future of modern Republican politics.

I wrote back in September that Republicans only had themselves to blame if they didn’t win in November. I stayed away from a study on candidate character in that piece, instead choosing to focus on the Democrats’ financial advantage and more traditional ground game strategy to make my argument. I’m still not 💯 sold that Trump won despite these disadvantages, but I’m smart enough to know that there’s more to the story than I originally thought.

The 2024 presidential election will be heavily studied (as it should be), and hopefully, I will be able to play a role in that review both here at The Phoenix Quill and elsewhere. But there is one projection that I can make from the data I’ve reviewed in recent days, and it is this: Republicans may have won the battle this time, but there’s still a long journey ahead in the war to make the GOP sustainable for the longhaul.

You see, I don’t believe we’ve awoken to a new “Morning in America”.

Rather, Americans did what they’ve been doing for nearly 250 years now — they didn’t like the status quo so they democratically voted to shake things up at the ballot box.

What they did not do — despite Trump’s victory and expected GOP victories in both both the House and Senate — is provide Republicans with any sort of mandate to govern unilaterally over the next two years. If the GOP wants to continue growing and expanding beyond its base — and remain the party of the people — it needs to heed their wishes and legislate pragmatically, not with an iron fist. Otherwise, Republicans will quickly find themselves out in the cold — possibly as soon as the 2026 midterm elections.

One way that Trump could show he’s a changed man and willing to truly lead the Republican Party into a new and stronger future is with the choices he makes over the next few weeks as he announces his leadership & transition teams. This includes nominating leaders from all parts of the “big tent,” including those who don’t always agree with him — and (gasp!) maybe even a Democrat or two!

The president-elect is a proud man and he should feel good about his achievements — including and most importantly, this latest electoral victory. If he truly wants to go down as a great leader in American history, he’ll be the one to make the initial overtures to the Cheneys, Kristols, and other “Never Trump” Republicans to help reunite the party once and for all. (After all, it was this lack of diplomacy that led many of these individuals to renounce the GOP in the first place!)

So far, Trump has only made a few announcements about those he’s planning on bringing with him to 1600 Pennsylvania Avenue. The biggest is incoming Chief of Staff (and former campaign manager) Susie Wiles, who appears to be well-suited for the role of maintaining law & order at 1600 Pennsylvania. His selections of Tom Homan as “border czar” and Elise Stefanik as U.N. Ambassador — coupled with his refusal to even consider rivals like Mike Pompeo & Nikki Haley leads me to think that we’re in for another four years of the same acrimony that brought us here.

Since its inception in 1854, the Republican Party has been advocating for:

“…liberty, economic prosperity, preserving American values and traditions, and restoring the American dream for every citizen of this great nation. As a party, we support policies that seek to achieve those goals. 

Our platform is centered on stimulating economic growth for all Americans, protecting constitutionally-guaranteed freedoms, ensuring the integrity of our elections, and maintaining our national security. We are working to preserve America's greatness for our children and grandchildren.”

We owe it to the American people to actually fight for these values. Fighting culture wars and disrupting foreign policy through crippling tariffs are not this. Nor are a lot of the components of the Heritage Foundation’s Project 2025 — which, while not explicitly endorsed by Trump, is backed by many of his advisors and contains several controversial policies that are fundamentally, well, not Republican in nature.

Suffice it to say that this is both not the autopsy I thought I’d be writing right now, but also that there will be much more to come in the coming weeks. So buckle up and stay tuned…