Lessons from 2022: The Rebirth of the GOP?
When you've reached rock bottom, there's only one way to go, and that's up!
Everyone and their mother will write an analysis of the 2022 midterm elections. And they should. Consultants got it wrong. The media got it wrong. Pollsters got it wrong.
As for me? To be honest, I wasn’t quite sure what to expect.
Let me explain.
This is the FIRST political cycle in nearly two decades that I have not worked for a political candidate or cause in any form. I chose to sit out this cycle, I had opportunities to get involved and opted not to.
Those close to me know that I’ve never been a huge fan of former President Donald J. Trump. Nonetheless, I sucked it up and played the loyal foot soldier while he was in office because I was trained to put party first.
And I would be remiss if I didn’t mention Trump’s accomplishments: tax reform, criminal justice reform, and a booming economy.
But at the end of the day, history isn’t going to remember him for these actions. Instead, it will be his rhetoric, his antics, and his actions following his 2020 election loss.
In a typical midterm election, it is fairly common for the party in the minority to pick up seats in Congress. Add to that an unpopular president (Democrat Joe Biden) and an economy on the brink of a recession, and the ingredients were all in place for Republicans to retake the House and Senate by significant margins Tuesday night.
Until they didn’t. Not only have Democrats maintained control of the U.S. Senate, but they could potentially gain a seat (via the Georgia run-off), while Republicans will likely only have a bare majority in the House when all is said and done.
So what happened? In a word, Trump.
Most past presidents in recent history have left Washington gracefully, returning to life in the private sector without much fanfare. Over the past 50 years, you’ve had humanitarians (Jimmy Carter), entrepreneurs (Barack Obama), and even potential “First Husbands” (Bill Clinton).
Trump, on the contrary, refused to relinquish control of the Republican Party after losing the 2020 election. He challenged the legitimacy of the election results, supported a violent coup against a sitting Congress certifying those results, and added the concept of “election denialism” into the GOP credo.
Trump then set forth on a crusade to further reshape the Republican Party in his likeness. He meddled in several 2022 primary races, leaving the GOP with weak candidates and unpopular messaging for the general election. As a result, Republicans failed to take back several winnable governor’s races and U.S. Senate seats in states like Michigan, Pennsylvania, or Wisconsin — putting the party at a disadvantage heading into 2024.
Moreover, even with a razor-thin majority in the House (updated projections now have the GOP with a 2 or 3 seat majority), infighting among the GOP’s different factions has already threatened its ability to legislate in 2023. Already, there appears to be a battle for party leadership, with Minority Leader Kevin McCarthy's (R-CA) bid for Speaker being challenged by members of the House Freedom Caucus.
Similar efforts are being launched by GOP hardliners to delay the party’s Senate leadership elections and prevent current Minority Leader Mitch McConnell (R-KY) from being re-elected to another term.
None of this is to say that the Democrats don’t have their own work cut out for them, or that their unexpected victory in 2022 gives them a free pass to run roughshod over Washington.
But if there is one lesson that can be learned from 2022 it is that: the GOP can rise from the ashes and find success in 2024, so long as it doesn’t allow itself to be held hostage once again by Donald John Trump and his world of MAGA.