How Tuesday's Elections Can Have a Major Impact on the 2024 Landscape
What happens after the polls close on Tuesday could have far-reaching consequences for 2024 & potentially shape how both Republicans and Democrats plan out their strategies for next year’s election.
For most Americans, Tuesday will be just your run-of-the-mill workday. Yet for residents of Kentucky, Louisiana, Mississippi, Pennsylvania, and Virginia, Tuesday will be anything but that.
That’s because these states will host major elections on Tuesday that will not only impact how their local and state governments are run for the next several years — but will also serve as a bellwether of sorts for how Americans might vote in next year’s presidential election.
What happens after the polls close on Tuesday could have far-reaching consequences for 2024, and potentially shape how both Republicans and Democrats plan out their strategies for next year’s elections.
Thousands of offices will be on the ballot Tuesday — everything from dogcatcher to governor. And while none of these offices will directly shape the federal policy at stake during next year’s presidential race, how voters cast their ballots this year will say a lot about current voter sentiment or the potential for any shifts in the national political dynamic.
This year’s elections will also give us a big preview into the issues and/or strategies that are resonating the most/least with voters right now.
For example, all 140 seats in the Virginia General Assembly will be on the ballot Tuesday. Democrats running for both state Senate and House of Delegates have focused heavily on abortion as a primary issue in this year’s election, arguing that Gov. Glenn Youngkin (R) will sign into a law a strict abortion ban in the Commonwealth if the GOP takes control of Richmond on Tuesday.
Should this strategy work in Virginia — as it did in several other states during last year’s midterm elections — it will likely provide cover for President Joe Biden’s (D) re-elect as he deals with a net negative approval rating and a dismal economy.
For Republicans, a strong showing in Tuesday’s elections will help drive up enthusiasm among core voters and provide them with a sense of momentum heading into a contentious Republican presidential primary. In addition to the VA state assembly, Republicans will also be looking to the state Supreme Court race in Pennsylvania as a harbinger of things to come in 2024, as the winner of this extremely competitive race will have a major say on how election-related cases are ruled next year.
(Additionally, winning big in both of these Commonwealths will further showcase their ability to win in key swing states and attract a broad range of voters no matter who their nominee is in 2024.)
Conversely, if Democrats win big in Virginia and Pennsylvania, and hold on to the governor’s mansion in Kentucky, they could use their big day Tuesday as proof that Americans are done with MAGA control. As a result, they’ll likely double down on their current messaging and strategies (see abortion above) in preparation for Biden’s re-elect.
Tuesday’s results could also reveal key shifts in public opinion on policy areas like healthcare, education, and the economy, providing us with some early indications of how voters are feeling about the country and the direction it is headed.
Should Republicans win big Tuesday, they may be more inclined to focus on issues like border security, limiting abortion access, and shrinking the size of the federal government during their 2024 campaigns. If the Democrats prevail, they may use the opportunity to expand their focus on education, climate change, and immigration.
The results of Tuesday's elections could also help to further identify the key issues that will be important to voters in the 2024 election. For example, if inflation and economic concerns continue to be top of mind for voters, we can expect to see both parties focus on these issues in their messaging. Same with abortion access/rights and national security, given the current conflicts in Israel and Ukraine.
Even Tuesday’s voter turnout levels could provide us with strong clues about what to expect next November. High turnout could suggest that voters are engaged and bode well for candidates running in 2024. Conversely, if turnout is low, it could suggest that voters are apathetic or disillusioned with the political process. According to L2, a nonpartisan data warehouse, early voting has increased in several key states including Pennsylvania and Virginia.
Further analysis of Tuesday’s exit polls, and in particular, how certain demographic groups like women, minorities, and young voters, cast their ballots Tuesday may also provide key insight into who might make up the 2024 voting electorate.
In short, while it is too early to predict the outcome of the 2024 presidential race with certainty, Tuesday's elections will provide a crucial glimpse into the political landscape. The results could set the stage for the upcoming contest, influencing the strategies and messaging of both parties. Democrats and Republicans alike will be closely watching the results, eager to interpret the message sent by voters and use it to their advantage as they prepare for 2024.