Even if Trump wins, the GOP has its work cut out for it in 2024
Rebuilding a winning coalition in a post-Trump world won’t be an easy feat for the GOP if it doesn’t expand its base
I am writing these words fully knowing that the next President of the United States has yet to be determined.
But what can nonetheless be concluded from Tuesday’s results is that Republicans will have a difficult time winning the Presidency in the future or taking back the House of Representatives unless the party is willing to expand beyond its “MAGA” base — and, to some extent, go back to its roots and once again become a “big tent party” that is more focused on ideas and issues rather than personalities.
We know this is possible. Why? Because we saw several positive signs of this in Tuesday’s election results:
Thirteen women were added to the GOP’s ranks in Congress on Tuesday, with several of them coming from suburban or exurban districts.
President Trump vastly overperformed his 2016 vote share in South Florida, largely boosted by a jump in support among Cubans and other Hispanics in the area. (Trump’s success here also helped the GOP flip two local Congressional seats.)
By keeping their unified and robust ground game fully operational despite the global pandemic, Trump and the GOP further built out their base and turned out the vote needed to win back nearly a dozen House seats nationwide.
Yet each of these successes comes with a caveat.
Republicans may have elected more women and minority candidates to political office this year, but exit poll results suggest that Trump’s gains among minority voters were largely offset by his losses among white voters.
Despite winning back a handful of Congressional seats on Tuesday, the suburban wave that flipped the House in 2018 largely stayed in place at the presidential level this year — fueled by women, minorities, and college-educated voters.
Millennials and seniors. Need I say more?
In 2013, the Republican National Committee commissioned its infamous “Growth and Opportunity Project” — a 150-page autopsy of sorts breaking down went wrong the previous November and outlining a playbook for success in 2014 and 2016.
(Of course, all good plans have their flaws. That following cycle, an unorthodox businessman crashed the Republican Primary, won the entire thing, and ended up becoming the 45th President of the United States - all while preaching the exact opposite of what was recommended by said playbook.)
What few people know, however, is that then-RNC Chairman (and Wisconsin native) Reince Priebus later helped the Wisconsin GOP conduct their own autopsy following the Badger state’s own devastating losses in 2018 — a playbook that found that many of the same ideological findings from the 2013 national edition were still valid!
Which brings us back to 2020. Those sentiments, as you’ve probably surmised by now, all focus on the concept of inclusion. Inclusion, in this case, is two-fold:
Making the Republican Party more welcoming and inviting to non-traditional voting blocs in a sustainable manner; and
Focusing on issues — along with corresponding messages — that are representative of the broader share of the party, not just those shared by voters with the louder voice.
Let’s look at each of these points individually.
As noted earlier, the GOP had some success this year both in winning minority voters and electing minority and female candidates to office compared to 2016. But simply creating coalitions and running non-traditional candidates and/or funding super PACs designed to boost these candidates isn’t enough on its own to maintain long-term success.
And that’s where the second point — the one I believe to be the lynchpin for achieving this — comes into play. Recent history shows that Republicans haven’t given voters a reason why they should stay in the fold once they’ve joined. That is a BIG problem. It can’t just be a particular candidate (Trump excluded) or event-specific motive that brings them into the fold for a cycle or two.
Republicans need to instead create an environment that is welcoming to all center- and center-right voters, libertarians, constitutionalists, and so on. Politics is about coalition-building, and many of the most successful leaders of the 20th century did so because they were willing to put the people before party.
This isn’t to say Republicans should suddenly abandon their laurels and start passing sweeping gun control measures or fracking bans far and wide. Instead, we need to understand that there’s room for everyone in our tent who shares our core values —low taxes, a free-market economy, fair trade, and states’ rights, just to name a few — and make room for those who agree with us on most, but not all, policies.
Support universal background checks or requiring a license to purchase a gun? Guess what? You’re not alone: so do a majority of Republicans! And while Republican leaders try to tell us climate change is a hoax, Republicans generally believe it’s something we should be at least mildly concerned with. Republicans (gasp!) even tend to support comprehensive immigration reform measures like a pathway for citizenship!
Refocusing the party’s messaging so it’s more welcoming to the many and not the few will allow us to continue growing to a point where we won’t suffer losses like the one we’re expected to face in Arizona this year. The Grand Canyon State is on the verge of flipping from red to blue this year, largely because of the state’s sizable Hispanic population. These voters flipped for a number of reasons, but it’s fair to conclude that Trump’s incendiary comments towards Mexican immigrants and handling of the coronavirus pandemic were two of the larger ones.
The success of centrist Republicans in Democratic districts, like Pennsylvania Rep. Brian Fitzpatrick, is another example of why we need to be a more inclusive party. Fitzpatrick, a two-term Congressman from the Philadelphia suburbs, is known for being a centrist willing to buck the party and the president at times — putting the voters in his district before the president and the Congressional whip. He was rewarded Tuesday by winning re-election with around 60% of the vote in a district Biden is expected to win.
(Sadly, there are few of these individuals left in Congress anymore. His ideological counterpart on the Democratic side, Minnesota Rep. Collin Peterson, was ousted this week after thirty years in Washington.)
No matter how this election turns out, NOW is the time for the GOP to become proactive with its “growth and opportunities”. The future starts now, and it begins with inclusivity.