I’ll admit, this is NOT the post-election autopsy I thought I’d be writing right now. In fact, I even started to shell out a different post — one that I thought would have, in some ways, brought full circle the decision I made several years ago to focus less on political consulting and more on the nonprofit/corporate side of Phoenix Rising in recent years.

Instead, I’ve largely spent the last few days reviewing as much data and reading as much as I can about why now-President Elect Donald Trump recorded such a decisive victory last Tuesday. Interestingly enough, the answer was right under my nose — and it was even something I’ve written about extensively over the years!

In the infamous words of lauded Democratic strategist James Carville:

Perhaps my jadedness has turned me into an establishment cynic, but my biggest miscalculation was having enough faith in the American people to focus on what matters most at the ballot box. We always knew it was going to be a change election — what we didn’t know was whether that change would come in the form of new policies for tackling issues like inflation & the economy, or in the form of new leadership & a return to decency in Washington, D.C. The voters chose the former — electing a convicted criminal to the job he refused to vacate just four years ago — suggesting that once again, the issues trumped everything (pun intended).

And, ultimately, that’s a good thing! I thought that I’d be writing about the death of the Republican Party this week. About the need to rebuild from the ashes (like a Phoenix, get it?) into a stronger, more adaptable organization that better suits the needs of 2020s America. Clearly, I’m not doing either of those things.

I’m thrilled that we do not have another four years of Democratic leadership in Washington. As a lifelong, card-carrying Republican, I truly believe the country will be better off with a return to conservative principles. Already, the Federal Reserve has cut interest rates another quarter-point — meaning that Americans looking to buy houses and cars (like me) will be able to take out loans with lower interest rates in 2025 than in recent years. The stock market soared in the aftermath of Trump’s election, with the S&P 500 briefly reaching 6,000 and the Dow hitting 44,000 for the first time.

But that doesn’t mean it’ll be all smooth sailing from here on out — nor am I wrong to be concerned about the future of the Republican Party under Trump and his acolytes. Mark my words: The next 180-ish days will be the most important in the future of modern Republican politics.

I wrote back in September that Republicans only had themselves to blame if they didn’t win in November. I stayed away from a study on candidate character in that piece, instead choosing to focus on the Democrats’ financial advantage and more traditional ground game strategy to make my argument. I’m still not 💯 sold that Trump won despite these disadvantages, but I’m smart enough to know that there’s more to the story than I originally thought.

The 2024 presidential election will be heavily studied (as it should be), and hopefully, I will be able to play a role in that review both here at The Phoenix Quill and elsewhere. But there is one projection that I can make from the data I’ve reviewed in recent days, and it is this: Republicans may have won the battle this time, but there’s still a long journey ahead in the war to make the GOP sustainable for the longhaul.

You see, I don’t believe we’ve awoken to a new “Morning in America”.

Rather, Americans did what they’ve been doing for nearly 250 years now — they didn’t like the status quo so they democratically voted to shake things up at the ballot box.

What they did not do — despite Trump’s victory and expected GOP victories in both both the House and Senate — is provide Republicans with any sort of mandate to govern unilaterally over the next two years. If the GOP wants to continue growing and expanding beyond its base — and remain the party of the people — it needs to heed their wishes and legislate pragmatically, not with an iron fist. Otherwise, Republicans will quickly find themselves out in the cold — possibly as soon as the 2026 midterm elections.

One way that Trump could show he’s a changed man and willing to truly lead the Republican Party into a new and stronger future is with the choices he makes over the next few weeks as he announces his leadership & transition teams. This includes nominating leaders from all parts of the “big tent,” including those who don’t always agree with him — and (gasp!) maybe even a Democrat or two!

The president-elect is a proud man and he should feel good about his achievements — including and most importantly, this latest electoral victory. If he truly wants to go down as a great leader in American history, he’ll be the one to make the initial overtures to the Cheneys, Kristols, and other “Never Trump” Republicans to help reunite the party once and for all. (After all, it was this lack of diplomacy that led many of these individuals to renounce the GOP in the first place!)

So far, Trump has only made a few announcements about those he’s planning on bringing with him to 1600 Pennsylvania Avenue. The biggest is incoming Chief of Staff (and former campaign manager) Susie Wiles, who appears to be well-suited for the role of maintaining law & order at 1600 Pennsylvania. His selections of Tom Homan as “border czar” and Elise Stefanik as U.N. Ambassador — coupled with his refusal to even consider rivals like Mike Pompeo & Nikki Haley leads me to think that we’re in for another four years of the same acrimony that brought us here.

Since its inception in 1854, the Republican Party has been advocating for:

“…liberty, economic prosperity, preserving American values and traditions, and restoring the American dream for every citizen of this great nation. As a party, we support policies that seek to achieve those goals. 

Our platform is centered on stimulating economic growth for all Americans, protecting constitutionally-guaranteed freedoms, ensuring the integrity of our elections, and maintaining our national security. We are working to preserve America's greatness for our children and grandchildren.”

We owe it to the American people to actually fight for these values. Fighting culture wars and disrupting foreign policy through crippling tariffs are not this. Nor are a lot of the components of the Heritage Foundation’s Project 2025 — which, while not explicitly endorsed by Trump, is backed by many of his advisors and contains several controversial policies that are fundamentally, well, not Republican in nature.

Suffice it to say that this is both not the autopsy I thought I’d be writing right now, but also that there will be much more to come in the coming weeks. So buckle up and stay tuned…

It’s ironic that after an exhausting 10 days of travel and helping to take care of my 2.5-year-old niece, I fell asleep partway through watching the live broadcast of the CBS Vice Presidential Debate because out of the three we’ve had so far this cycle, it was — by all reports — the most civil, and well, boring.

In both my own post-debate analysis and others I’ve seen, there were a few common threads. As a swing-state undecided voter told The Washington Post during their live-debate focus groups:

“I found this debate to be very amicable. They both seemed to care about the American people and were agreeable to what each other had to say.”

Even Axios’s post-debate coverage noted that:

The result was a refreshingly substantive, even cheery debate — a flashback to a less polarized America, and a preview of what's possible if the nation's current rage subsides.

This, my friends, is what political debates are traditionally like — and yet in the year 2024, watching Republican J.D. Vance and Democrat Tim Walz debate like two civilized humans was a strange and refreshing breath of fresh air.

The October 1st debate was yet another reminder that Americans are yearning for a return to a society in which people came together to help one another in times of need, putting aside their own agendas for the betterment of others. Or just a time when politics in general didn’t muster such division and hatred between Americans as it does now.

As a recent transplant to Charleston, South Carolina with family in the Greenville-Spartanburg area, I’ve bore witness to the best in human nature as people came together to help those affected by Hurricane Helene. While my parents and I personally babysat my 2.5-year-old niece for a week so my sister and her husband — both hospital workers — could take care of things back in Greenville, I know we were among the lucky ones. My sister didn’t have much property damage, but she has friends who lost their homes in the storm, and those in other parts of the Blue Ridge Mountains (such as Asheville, North Carolina) fared even worse and will be rebuilding for years as a result of Helene (and later, Milton).

They call it an “October Surprise” because it typically affects a political campaign in the month of October, but it can truly be anytime anytime after Labor Day. In 2008, for example, mounting loan losses plus the fall of Lehman Brothers on September 15th sent the stock market into a major recession and ultimately resulted in Barack Obama’s presidential victory seven weeks later.

Sometimes, we think we’re going to get an October Surprise, and it ends up being a complete nothingburger. A perfect example of this would be back in 2016 when footage surfaced of an old Access Hollywood interview featuring inappropriate comments about women by then-GOP presidential candidate Donald Trump.

Already this month, we’ve had:

• The aftermath and devastation of Hurricanes Helene and Milton;

• Multiple labor strikes on both coasts (Boeing workers in Seattle & East Coast port workers);

• Escalating tensions in the Middle East between Israel and Hamas/Hezbollah;

• A newly unsealed legal brief and redacted document dump related to the Special Counsel’s January 6th case against Trump;

• And who knows what else is coming?!?

Recent polling suggests that the race between Kamala Harris and Donald Trump remains neck-and-neck, meaning that the slightest change in circumstances (aka an October Surprise or two) could have a major impact on the race. So let’s take a look at some of the October Surprises we’ve already had.

To start, a large chunk of the destruction caused by Hurricane Helene affected those living in or around the Blue Ridge Mountains of the Carolinas, Tennessee, and Georgia. Except for Asheville proper (Buncombe County, North Carolina), these areas tend to vote for Republican candidates in general elections and if there are issues with voter turnout because of the storm, this could impact Trump’s ability to carry North Carolina or Georgia in November.

While the above map was released before Hurricane Milton’s landfall on October 8th, its data also foretells the impact that the once Category 5 storm could have on the vote in Florida. By following the I-4 corridor across the peninsula of the Sunshine State, Milton traveled through counties that are both more populous and historically have a more liberal bend than Helene did — counties like Hillsborough, Pinellas, Sarasota, Orange, and Volusia. All this could result in lower-than-anticipated early vote returns for Kamala Harris and other state-level Democrats at a time when the campaigns were bullish headed into November.

And trust me, millions upon millions of people were displaced initially as a result of Milton — likely far more at the end of the day than Helene. I was supposed to be at a client conference in Tampa that week and had to evacuate. Below is a picture of the bay that I took from my hotel room on Sunday, October 6th.

According to FiveThirtyEight.com, which provides an average of all public polling available, the presidential race is currently a dead heat in both North Carolina and Georgia — while Trump holds a slight edge over Harris in Florida.

With the economy and inflation still the top issue for voters, the bicoastal union strikes could also have a small impact on the outcome of the election. A longtime union supporter, President Joe Biden said at the outset of both that he would not invoke the 1947 Taft-Hawley Act, which would’ve given him the power to end the strikes via collective bargaining. Harris later signaled that she’d support him in that decision.

Fortunately, the port workers’ strike ended after a few days, preventing a major breakdown of the American supply chain and allowing us to avoid a situation in which everyday essentials such as groceries, electronics, and holiday gifts became even more expensive. (It also might have handed Trump another term in office.) The Boeing workers’ strike lasted nearly a month, however, which could lead to minimal disruptions in air travel & freight shipping as the company begins to normalize its operations.

With just a few weeks left before Election Day, there’s still a myriad of things that could impact both the presidential race as well as those down-ticket. But one thing’s for certain — no matter how perfect one’s campaign is this fall, be on the lookout for an October Surprise (or two) to wreak havoc on the voting electorate and shake things up a bit between now and November 5th.

The other week, as I was scrolling through my RSS newsfeed, I came across a post from a well-respected Pennsylvania-based politics news site. This post discussed the dozens of bipartisan endorsements being touted by three-term GOP Rep. Brian Fitzpatrick, who — like his late brother, Mike — is one of the most pragmatic legislators ever to represent SEPA in Congress.

We’re not talking about small-potatoes endorsements, either: Among the 30+ endorsements mentioned were more than a dozen major unions, the U.S. Chamber of Commerce, the Fraternal Order of Police, AND several gun control groups.

It got me thinking because, well, you don’t see these types of organizations coalescing around a single candidate or cause that often in 2024. Both Fitzpatrick brothers — like many of their colleagues in the Problem Solvers Caucus, or the once-powerful Main Street Caucus and Blue Dog Coalition — appear to be a dying breed in Washington, as ideologue and authoritarianism reign superior at the expense of policy and pragmatism.

But is that really what the American people want? Even with the summer shakeup created by President Joe Biden’s departure from the Democratic ticket, former President Donald J. Trump and Vice President Kamala Harris remain neck-and-neck with just a couple of weeks to go before Early Voting begins.

The facts are simple: Voters are unhappy with the status quo. Voters do not like the direction the United States is headed in. Voters want change and WILL vote for that change in November. What is up for debate — and what is left to be determined over these next seven weeks is what that change will look like and who will lead it come January.

I mean really, does anyone actually think that Liz & Dick Cheney, Adam Kinzinger, Geoff Duncan, and the myriad of other former GOP officials who’ve endorsed Harris this cycle believe they support her based on the policies she espouses?

Instead, look at the fight that the former Wyoming Congresswoman chose to pick with Nikki Haley over the former South Carolina governor’s endorsement of Trump:

As CNN’s roundtable put it so astutely, the former GOP presidential candidate is taking the cautious road here — endorsing but not actively campaigning for Trump — so she has some cover no matter the outcome of November’s election. If Trump wins, she will still seen favorably by the party, whereas if he loses, Haley can’t take the blame for the result and can be part of the party’s rebuild moving forward.

If Republicans and Democrats were coming to the table for November’s election as equally heavy hitters, my money would easily be on the Grand Old Party to clean house in D.C. this fall. But that’s not what we have.

Yes, a majority of voters may agree more with Trump (i.e. Republicans) on the issues this cycle. And yes, at the end of the day, issues and policy may be the most important thing that drives voters to the polls every cycle.

But there’s a reason so many Republicans are refusing to vote for Trump (or not voting for POTUS at all, like former GOP Senator Pat Toomey from my home commonwealth of Pennsylvania). And it’s those intangible things that are not only making this a much closer race than it has any business being but could potentially lead to Harris in the Oval Office on January 20th.

For the sake of argument, and to avoid writing an entire tome here, I’m going to skip over candidate quality for now. I think that’s been discussed enough — both by me in my past posts and by others. But that’s not the only advantage Democrats have in their pocket this cycle.

Let’s start with the financial one: In the two months since Kamala Harris replaced Joe Biden as the Democratic nominee for president, fundraising up and down the party ticket has skyrocketed. Democrats currently hold a 3:1 advantage over their Republican counterparts in terms of fundraising headed into the fall, something that will help them dearly with churning out the early & absentee vote. Harris’ fundraising efforts have been so strong that she was already able to transfer nearly $25 million from her campaign fund to the DSCC, DCCC, DLCC, and other state-party organizations to help with down-ballot efforts.

We may not be living in the days of party bosses anymore, but when candidates up and down the ticket still rely upon the party for the bulk of their operational and voter contact resources, that $25 million could make a difference in a state-level race on Election Day.

On the contrary, Republicans decided to take up a different approach this cycle — and it’s very likely to be their downfall regardless of who opposed Trump on the ballot. This brings me to the second — and probably biggest advantage — Democrats have going for them this cycle: centralized party organization at all levels (state, local, national) this fall.

Upon taking over the leadership of the Republican National Committee this past spring, Trump (and his daughter-in-law, Lara) scrapped the committee’s lauded voter contact departments (grassroots, political/communications, and data/research), arguing that this outreach could be better managed and funded by super PACs. This move came after a March advisory by the Federal Elections Commission (FEC) effectively allowing campaigns and outside groups to collaborate more on voter turnout efforts in federal races.

The issue with this is two-fold: First, as 501[c]4 organizations, these groups cannot campaign directly for specific candidates (aka Trump), but rather for specific causes (such as abortion bans or conservative leadership in Washington, D.C.). Thus, many down-ticket candidates who would normally rely on the RNC and its state-level affiliates for institutional support with their grassroots and voter outreach programs will likely not get as much support this year — a difference that could be make-or-break in some marginal races.

Secondly, all of these groups — including but not limited to America PAC, Turnout for America, Turning Point Action, and America First Works — are private organizations that are ultimately beholden to their donors before that of the GOP and its affiliated candidates. It’s free market competition at its finest, ladies and gents!

Because they’ve yet to sustainably coordinate with one another, let alone Trump and the RNC, there’ve been multiple situations reported where the groups have duplicated efforts among targeted voters and/or prioritized certain pockets of the voting electorate — such as low-propensity rural voters — over others that the RNC/party leadership would rather they contact (i.e. swing-state suburban voters).

The GOP then (perhaps unsurprisingly, given the events of the last few years) funneled much of the money it saved by not mounting a sizable voter contact program into building out a massive voter integrity and election information program — ensuring that if Trump wins or loses in November, it was done legally. They would have been better off integrating with (or building their own version of) a voter contact system like Buzz360 if they wanted to ensure victory for all GOP candidates both in November and in elections to come.

Meanwhile, things are status quo at the Democratic National Committee, and down-ticket Democratic candidates aren’t struggling to mount a last-ditch voter contact program the same way their GOP counterparts are.

I don’t know about you, but it’s gonna be one heck of an autopsy this winter if the answer for the GOP’s defeats all comes back to this.

The debate, which may be the only debate this cycle between former President Donald J. Trump and Vice President Kamala Harris, is set to take place later this evening in Philadelphia on ABC News.

Katie was one of three panelists included in this special election-focused segment and represented the GOP view. The other panelists were a nonpartisan academic scholar and a Democratic strategist.

Katie was asked about several topics during the half-hour segment, including the recent endorsements of Harris by both Liz and Dick Cheney, whether Trump’s attacks on Harris’s character and criminal record could impact him with persuadable voters, and what Trump needs to do in tonight’s debate to show he’s the better option this November.

(Plus, if you look closely enough, you may catch a special cameo from PRC’s chief canine officer, Amalia Bella!)

Click on the videos below to watch Katie’s segments:

You can watch the full episode of AlQaheraNews Live on YouTube here.

It’s been exactly one month since President Joe Biden dropped out of the 2024 presidential race, and well, it’s not entirely clear that things have truly gotten better.

Sure, we no longer have two octogenarians (or near-octogenarians) running for the nation’s highest office this November. But it’s not like now-Democratic presidential nominee (and current Vice President) Kamala Harris chose a candidate that does much to widen her coalition in Minnesota Gov. Tim Walz.

When I last wrote about this race a few weeks ago, I hypothesized that Harris would choose a vice presidential nominee who would help her expand the Democratic coalition and ultimately bring her closer to the 50%+1 necessary to win in November. I figured she’d tap someone like Pennsylvania Gov. Josh Shapiro and Arizona Sen. Mark Kelly for the nomination — both moderates from swing states who’ve established themselves as dealmakers willing to cross party lines to get things done.

Instead, like Trump did with Vance, Harris doubled down on her liberal base with Walz. Sure, Walz will help bring some additional voters to the fold — including your traditional “blue dog” Midwestern Democrats and pro-gun/pro-military voters, for example — but not nearly as many as a Shapiro or Kelly veep pick might have.

Yet if you listen to the media, you hear Republicans — and some in the Trump camp even — expressing buyer’s remorse over the Vance selection. You don’t have that on the Democrats’ side, and it’s not because Walz is still in the honeymoon phase, either.

During a controversial appearance before the National Association of Black Journalists in late July, Trump remarked that “[t]he choice of a vice president makes no difference.” And to some extent, Trump is 💯 correct.

Where Trump (and Vance) are wrong is in their strategy and messaging. Rather than attack the Democratic ticket for their progressive policies and/or records, they’ve chosen to belittle and castigate them. And when Trump and Vance aren’t bullying Harris or Vance, they’re picking on Biden and his senility — not his politics — even though he’s no longer on the ballot in November!

Over the last couple of weeks alone, Trump and Vance have collectively:

• Poked fun at Kamala Harris’s unique laugh

• Questioned Harris’s ethnic heritage (she identifies as both Black and Indian)

• Defended past attacks related to her lack of naturally-born children (“childless cat ladies”)

That’s not even getting into the attacks that are blowing back on all parties involved, such as the questions over Walz’s military record or the revelation that second gentleman Doug Emhoff’s original marriage ended because of a scandalous affair.

NEWSFLASH: Personal attacks do not win you political campaigns. We’re not that far removed from a time when people literally voted for a candidate (George W. Bush) because they felt more comfortable grabbing a beer with him than they did his opponent (Al Gore). And that was after Bush’s consultants (including Karl Rove, one of the architects of the modern GOP political campaign) decided that the blue-blooded, Yale grad, son of a former President needed to change his entire demeanor to better connect with the average Joe while running for governor of Texas in 1994.

Sure, Harris has yet to release a full slate of policy initiatives as the Democratic presidential nominee (as of this writing, her only major statements have been on the economy). Nor has she had an official press conference or media interview since replacing Biden on the ticket. Yet Harris has been a public official for decades — including her time as a U.S. Senator from California — and is a current member of the Biden administration.

Dave McCormick, the Republican candidate for U.S. Senate from my home commonwealth of Pennsylvania, released this genius video shortly after Harris jumped into the race in July.

While McCormick is using the video to tie his Democratic opponent — U.S. Senator Bob Casey — to Harris after Casey endorsed her for president, McCormick does so strictly by focusing on Harris’s record of liberal policies while in office and during her ill-fated bid for POTUS back in 2019. McCormick doesn’t call her names, or make fun of her ethnic heritage, or any of the other dirty smear tactics that Trump and co. have resorted to — he sticks to what the voters care most about.

They say that the Harris/Walz campaign is leaning into the concept of “joy” as it develops its messaging strategy — and who could blame them when all their opponent does is tear them down bit-by-bit, piece-by-piece? Americans are exhausted of all the negativity and in a “change” election, they’d rather turn to hope and optimism — even if it means more of the same policies — than anger and violence.

For much of this campaign cycle, Republicans have held the edge in polling when it comes to the issues — particularly when it comes to handling the economy and immigration. Yet recent polling suggests that Harris is gaining ground on several key issues, making the race more competitive as we head toward November.

It’s gotten so bad that many top Republicans, including former South Carolina Gov. Nikki Haley and House Speaker Kevin McCarthy, have publicly urged the former president to stop the name-calling and get back to the issues. Instead, Trump’s taken to meandering press conferences at his lavish estates in Florida and New Jersey — under the guise of delivering policy speeches or major announcements, mind you — and even going so far as to assert that he thinks he’s “entitled to personal attacks." 

He’s even hired additional senior staff for his presidential campaign, all of whom will continue to drive home the doubling-down message rather than mix things like his allies are begging him to do.

Meanwhile, Harris is out and about on the campaign trail, giving the voters exactly what they want to hear while simultaneously nailing the delivery. Wearing a powder blue suit to give a speech in Raleigh, North Carolina (home of the University of North Carolina Tar Heels) is 🧑‍🍳💋 — well, unless you’re a Duke Blue Devil, that is!

Maybe one day, society will be civil enough that we’ll be able to return to the days of Robert’s Rules debates and checks-and-balances and working together for a common good. Until then, 🤬.

After studying — and then working — in D.C. politics for nearly 15 years, I used to think I’d seen it all. How I couldn’t have been more wrong…

I made the tough decision a couple of years ago to step back from politics and focus on other work not because I wanted to leave the game, but because the game left me. The GOP under President Donald J. Trump has morphed into something unrecognizable — something I believe will set us back more than it will ultimately advance us — and I wasn’t willing to sacrifice my principles for a cause I didn’t believe in.

That doesn’t mean that I haven’t kept abreast of current events. If anything, what’s happened over the last few weeks has reassured me that my decision was the right one, for now. 

I “grew up” in a world where students learned politics through cutesy videos like “I’m Just a Bill” from Schoolhouse Rock. Where checks and balances, the concept of three EQUAL branches of government, and Tip O’Neill’s famous slogan “All politics are local” loomed large. Heck, I was one of the millions of Americans enthralled with the TV show “The West Wing,” idyllic as it may be, and used to dream that I could be like Josh Lyman or Karl Rove when I finally made it big in the nation’s capital.

(Of course, I later learned that the political show most accurately depicting D.C. politics is “VEEP” — which says a lot about the state of the nation — and HBO launched that show largely pre-Trump!) 

The running joke for Republicans who hone their talents in D.C. is that you come in as a staunch conservative and end up a pragmatic moderate the longer you stay “inside the beltway.” 

Maybe I did live in D.C. for too long, but I very much found myself becoming that dreaded “R.I.N.O.” over time — and truthfully, I’m not ashamed or embarrassed by it. So what if my beliefs resemble those of former House Speakers John Boehner and Paul Ryan — both men I believe did a phenomenal job given the circumstances they were under, and both men who only called it a day when the fringe within our party became too much for them to handle daily.

Again I go back to ideals, but we used to live in a world where Republicans represented all colors and stripes of Americans — a true “big tent” of sorts. You all know I’m a Philly girl at heart, and as such, my first internship back in 2005 was for my then-Senator, the late Arlen Spector. Spector was a longtime liberal Republican who served my home state alongside another Republican, Rick Santorum, who was far more conservative than Specter and whose 2006 senate campaign I also worked on. 

Unfortunately, you wouldn’t find a pairing like this in 2024, because you no longer have “Blue Dog Democrats” and “Northeastern Republicans” roaming the halls of the Capital in tandem. We can talk about Democrats and Republicans creating a “big tent” within their respective parties all we want in politics, but it no longer exists in practice — and that’s a damn shame because the majority of American people are in the middle of the political spectrum and not at the ends of the bell-curve like our elected officials. 

Which brings me back to the events of the last few weeks. I’m not going to recap them because, frankly, there’s enough ink being spilled on them elsewhere.

Rather, I’m gonna start by sharing this tweet, because well, it’s pretty apropos:

They say history repeats itself. While many of the events that we are facing right now are similar to what happened in American politics in 1968, we didn’t have the internet or social media 56 years ago. Party bosses — rather than the grassroots — were very much still in control back then, and we didn’t go out of our way to do or say the most politically correct thing 100% of the time. 

Even in times as crazy as these, you can tell which politicians on both sides of the aisle are harkening for a return to the civility that once existed in Washington. 

Like former Maryland governor (and current U.S. Senate candidate) Larry Hogan:

Or New York Republican Congressman Michael Lawlor:

Both of those posts came Sunday after President Joe Biden announced he would leave the presidential race. 

Several similar posts were released by their Democratic counterparts earlier this month as well in the wake of the attempt on former President Trump.

Unfortunately, civility appears to be the exception these days — and not the rule. You can say all you want about an octogenarian being too old to run for president, but to be fair, the GOP’s nominee is only a few years younger than him. 

We’re no longer able to have a civil discussion on the issues that divide our two parties these days. Rather, the temperature has been raised so much that it’s led to violence and bloodshed at times.

When I’m working with my clients, I like to take a holistic approach and start from the top — the 30,000-foot view of the project, so to speak — before I dig in deep and dive down to the 10,000-foot or 5,000-foot views. Both Republicans and Democrats today are skipping ahead to those myopic views, much to their detriment.

For example, many Republicans today still think the race is Trump’s to lose even with Biden off the ticket — after all, why wouldn’t the American people re-elect a convicted felon to the nation’s highest office in November? It’s why Trump’s campaign is running scared, demanding changes to the ABC presidential debate in September and reimbursements for his previous campaign efforts rather than embracing a full pivot and doing whatever it can to mount a competitive race against Vice President Kamala Harris and her soon-to-be-announced running mate.

You see, two wrongs ≠ a right. And the Democrats just took away one of those “wrongs” the moment Biden announced he was not seeking re-election.

Trump’s “advantage” in the race came from the fact that Americans disliked both original choices for president — in a Trump v. Biden matchup, Trump as the outside is the natural benefactor. Without Biden in the mix, he does not necessarily have that same advantage.

Much can (and will) be said about the timing of Biden’s decision — in particular, the fact that it came after Republicans nominated their ticket in full at the Republican National Convention in Milwaukee. Again hindsight is always 20/20, but Trump’s decision to select Ohio Sen. J.D. Vance as his running mate looks even worse now than it did last week because he brings nothing new to the ticket and makes it that much harder for Trump to get to 50%+1 on November 5th. He would have been much better selecting a swing state leader (like Virginia Gov. Glenn Youngkin), a female (former South Carolina Gov. Nikki Haley), or a minority candidate (Sens. Tim Scott of South Carolina or Marco Rubio of Florida).

Nor am I the only one to think this — just look at the results of Punchbowl News’ A-Canvass of senior congressional staffers and K Street leaders who were following the RNC speakers:

You can take it to the bank that Harris is not going to make this same oversight. Multiple reports have her top choices for a running mate narrowed down to three swing state candidates: Govs. Josh Shapiro of Pennsylvania and Roy Cooper of North Carolina, as well as Arizona Sen. Mark Kelly.

Not only will this cancel out in full any advantage that Vance could have brought to the GOP ticket, but it will make it that much more difficult for Trump to expand beyond his already-maxed-out ceiling.

Kamala and her “Blue Dog” swing-state running mate, on the other hand — well, they may have a clearer pathway to 50%+1 come November 5th.

I guess my point (via this very long ramble) is this: Sunday’s news doesn’t mean that Trump will definitely lose or Harris will definitely win in November. All it means is that the 2024 presidential election is now a brand-new race, and don’t let anyone tell you anything different.

A little over a year ago, I sat down and penned my own autopsy of the 2022 midterm elections for this website.

I suggested that Republicans should do the following (among other things) if they wanted to have any success in future elections:

• Move on from former President Donald J. Trump and the “MAGA” movement.

• Campaign primarily on economic/pocketbook issues — and not societal/cultural ones — to win back independent voters concerned about a nation teetering on the brink of recession.

So naturally, what happened 365 days later?

Well, for starters, Trump is so far ahead in the race for the GOP nomination for president that the only conceivable way for him not to win at this point would pretty much be if he is in jail come November 2024. (Granted, with 91 felony charges against him at the moment, it’s not an entirely foregone conclusion…)

Then, rather than focus on the economy and inflation — which polls as recently as September suggested were still the most important issue to voters nationwide — what do Republicans decide to stake their 2023 election hopes on?

Yes, Virginia (pun intended)! Republicans kept with the cultural/societal playbook, pushing for limits on abortion access rather than reminding voters why they are the party best equipped to keep the economy from collapsing any further.

Sadly, the outcomes were almost too predictable:

• In Kentucky, a Democratic incumbent who won his 2019 race by a mere 5,000 votes won re-election over a Trump-backed Republican by 5 percentage points!

• In Ohio, voters overwhelmingly passed a Constitutional amendment to protect a woman’s right to choose in the state.

• Even in ruby-red Mississippi, the incumbent Republican governor barely won re-election, besting his Democratic challenger by just 4 points.

As for the Old Dominion state, let’s just say Gov. Glenn Youngkin — who was rumored to have been considering a last-minute presidential bid pending the outcome of Tuesday’s elections — won’t be throwing his hat into that race any time soon.

Democrats won ‘bigly’ on Tuesday — maintaining control of the state Senate while also flipping the state House in Richmond. This was a stunning rebuke to Youngkin, who spent the weeks prior to Tuesday’s elections traipsing the Commonwealth with his “Spirit of Virginia” bus tour and pouring nearly $20 million from his super PAC into GOP races statewide.

Virginia Democrats had a simple strategy for victory: They took Youngkin’s pledge during the bus tour to pursue a 15-week abortion ban if Republicans won control of both chambers, and spent $17 million dollars blasting television ads statewide to convince voters that voting for the GOP this fall would effectively ban abortions in the Commonwealth.

Republicans failed to properly address this counterattack, and as a result, Democrats turned out in droves on Election Day.

What hurts even more is that the Democrats’ success in turning out the vote against Youngkin and Republicans in Richmond also nullified any efforts that local GOP party units made this year to win back ground at the county-level, especially in the heavily-populated D.C. suburbs. A number of races once thought to be competitive in Fairfax, Prince William, and Loudoun Counties — including several key school board races — once again went for Democrats because of the influx of Democratic votes on Tuesday1.

As more time passes and additional information about Tuesday’s election is revealed, we’ll continue to learn more about what went wrong and what could have been.

One such tidbit came from RNC Chairwoman Ronna McDaniel, who told WMAL radio host Larry O’Connor on Wednesday that Youngkin turned down an early offer of financial assistance from the committee to help with election efforts this cycle. (Republican Party of Virginia Chairman Rich Anderson later told O’Connor that he actually approached the RNC for financial assistance in October but was denied.)

The short of the matter is that regardless of who’s to blame, the GOP needs to change its strategy ASAP if it wants to have any success in the future. And that starts by going back to the basics: ‘Dumping the Trump’ and campaigning on the issues that persuadable voters care about, not just the base.

Until then, I guess I’ll just be writing the same autopsy year after year.

For most Americans, Tuesday will be just your run-of-the-mill workday. Yet for residents of Kentucky, Louisiana, Mississippi, Pennsylvania, and Virginia, Tuesday will be anything but that.

That’s because these states will host major elections on Tuesday that will not only impact how their local and state governments are run for the next several years — but will also serve as a bellwether of sorts for how Americans might vote in next year’s presidential election.

What happens after the polls close on Tuesday could have far-reaching consequences for 2024, and potentially shape how both Republicans and Democrats plan out their strategies for next year’s elections.

Thousands of offices will be on the ballot Tuesday — everything from dogcatcher to governor. And while none of these offices will directly shape the federal policy at stake during next year’s presidential race, how voters cast their ballots this year will say a lot about current voter sentiment or the potential for any shifts in the national political dynamic.

This year’s elections will also give us a big preview into the issues and/or strategies that are resonating the most/least with voters right now.

For example, all 140 seats in the Virginia General Assembly will be on the ballot Tuesday. Democrats running for both state Senate and House of Delegates have focused heavily on abortion as a primary issue in this year’s election, arguing that Gov. Glenn Youngkin (R) will sign into a law a strict abortion ban in the Commonwealth if the GOP takes control of Richmond on Tuesday.

Should this strategy work in Virginia — as it did in several other states during last year’s midterm elections — it will likely provide cover for President Joe Biden’s (D) re-elect as he deals with a net negative approval rating and a dismal economy.

For Republicans, a strong showing in Tuesday’s elections will help drive up enthusiasm among core voters and provide them with a sense of momentum heading into a contentious Republican presidential primary. In addition to the VA state assembly, Republicans will also be looking to the state Supreme Court race in Pennsylvania as a harbinger of things to come in 2024, as the winner of this extremely competitive race will have a major say on how election-related cases are ruled next year.

(Additionally, winning big in both of these Commonwealths will further showcase their ability to win in key swing states and attract a broad range of voters no matter who their nominee is in 2024.)

Conversely, if Democrats win big in Virginia and Pennsylvania, and hold on to the governor’s mansion in Kentucky, they could use their big day Tuesday as proof that Americans are done with MAGA control. As a result, they’ll likely double down on their current messaging and strategies (see abortion above) in preparation for Biden’s re-elect.

Tuesday’s results could also reveal key shifts in public opinion on policy areas like healthcare, education, and the economy, providing us with some early indications of how voters are feeling about the country and the direction it is headed.

Should Republicans win big Tuesday, they may be more inclined to focus on issues like border security, limiting abortion access, and shrinking the size of the federal government during their 2024 campaigns. If the Democrats prevail, they may use the opportunity to expand their focus on education, climate change, and immigration.

The results of Tuesday's elections could also help to further identify the key issues that will be important to voters in the 2024 election. For example, if inflation and economic concerns continue to be top of mind for voters, we can expect to see both parties focus on these issues in their messaging. Same with abortion access/rights and national security, given the current conflicts in Israel and Ukraine.

Even Tuesday’s voter turnout levels could provide us with strong clues about what to expect next November. High turnout could suggest that voters are engaged and bode well for candidates running in 2024. Conversely, if turnout is low, it could suggest that voters are apathetic or disillusioned with the political process. According to L2, a nonpartisan data warehouse, early voting has increased in several key states including Pennsylvania and Virginia.

Further analysis of Tuesday’s exit polls, and in particular, how certain demographic groups like women, minorities, and young voters, cast their ballots Tuesday may also provide key insight into who might make up the 2024 voting electorate.

In short, while it is too early to predict the outcome of the 2024 presidential race with certainty, Tuesday's elections will provide a crucial glimpse into the political landscape. The results could set the stage for the upcoming contest, influencing the strategies and messaging of both parties. Democrats and Republicans alike will be closely watching the results, eager to interpret the message sent by voters and use it to their advantage as they prepare for 2024.

Could your campaign use some help with its strategy or communications efforts? Phoenix Rising Consulting has 10+ years of successfully helping GOP candidates nationwide with their political and advocacy efforts! Contact us today for more information or to request a proposal!

It’s no secret that the Republican Party has been struggling to win over younger voters (Millennials and Gen Z) for years.

After all, the GOP’s youth problem started long before the rise of Donald J. Trump. Not since George W. Bush was in office have the two parties split the youth vote, according to researchers from CIRCLE at Tufts University in Massachusetts.

What CIRCLE’s research shows, however, is the gap between Republicans and Democrats has gotten substantially wider over the last decade — to the point where voters under the age of 30 are voting nearly 2:1 for Democrats in recent elections.

Why is this all happening?

Unfortunately, a perfect storm of events has come together to result in the sharp change in voter preference among Millennials and Gen Z adults over the last 20 years.

The first is the GOP’s positioning on social and cultural issues. No longer is the GOP the “Big Tent Party” featuring leaders like the late Sen. Arlen Specter (PA) and Sen. Lincoln Chafee (RI). Republicans have instead pushed in recent years to restrict abortion access nationwide, as well as for restrictions affecting those in the LGBTQ+ communities.

Along those lines, the GOP’s continued allegiance with former President Donald Trump continues to hurt the party with younger voters. As you can see in the above graph (CIRCLE), Republicans had made inroads with Millennials in 2014 — coming within 10 points of Democrats on the Congressional ballot that year — before permanently losing the cohort once the Don rode his infamous escalator that fateful day in June 2015. Whether it’s his polarizing personality, presidential track record, or positions on key issues such as immigration, healthcare, and climate, change, many young voters are skeptical of another four years under Trump.

Lastly, the Republican Party’s current messaging hasn’t done it any favors with younger voters. Continuing on from the Trump years, the GOP’s message is often perceived as negative and divisive to younger Americans — and as a result, it does not resonate with them very well. Younger voters are more likely to seek out a political party/ideology that offers solutions to the issues/problems they care about, not just critiques.

What now?

Sadly, Republicans have their work cut out for them if they want to make a dent in the Democrats’ advantage with the youth vote moving forward.

The GOP needs to find a way to address the concerns of young people on social and cultural issues — even though the plethora of candidates running for President appear to be fixated on it. It also needs to have a plan B for winning back young voters if Donald Trump ends up the party’s nominee next year.

Most importantly, the GOP needs to refocus its core messaging and strategy so that it’s focused instead on subjects that not only resonate with Millennials and Gen X voters, but also goes about it in a way that is solution-based rather than critique-based. Its strategy also needs to be more inclusive and welcoming to the concerns of America’s youth.

How can the GOP address this?

In short, there are 4 main actions that the Republican Party can take if it wants to tell Millennials and Gen Z voters that it is serious about their vote in 2024 and beyond:

1. Address the concerns of young people on social issues. Rather than unilaterally passing restrictions limiting restrictions affecting broad swaths of the youth population, the GOP needs to be more open to discussing these issues to see if common ground can be reached.

2. Distance itself from Donald Trump. Regardless of how many indictments are filed against him prior to the Iowa Caucuses, the GOP needs to make it clear that it is the party of Abraham Lincoln and Ronald Reagan — not Donald John Trump. As such, it needs to be willing to move on from him and on to a candidate who could help the party with younger voters in 2024.

3. Improve its messaging and strategy. The GOP’s current strategy and message is largely focused on its base (i.e. old, white voters). Instead, Republicans need to find a way to better communicate its core principles with voters of all ages, ethnicities, and other demographic/social classifications. Once voters are reminded of the benefits of limited government, low taxes, and individual freedom/liberties, they’ll be flocking back to the GOP in no time!

4. Focus on offering solutions to the problems young people care about. Young people today just want optimism — it’s why Obama’s “Yes We Can” message resonated so well with Americans across the spectrum. The GOP needs to show young people that it understands their concerns and that it has a plan to address them, not just constant complaints about what’s wrong with the world.

If the Republican Party can take these steps, it will be in a much better position to win back the youth vote in 2024.

But it won’t be an easy feat. The onus is on Republicans to act now, because if it doesn’t act soon, it may find itself losing ground further to Democrats — and eventually, becoming a minority party in the United States.

Thinking about running for political office? Phoenix Rising Consulting has 10+ years successfully helping GOP candidates nationwide with their political and advocacy efforts! Contact us today for more information or to request a proposal!

It’s been a while since we’ve written/discussed anything political here on The Phoenix Quill.

To that effect, we thought we’d run for you a quick primary on the current state of the 2024 Republican Primary for President of the United States. The primary itself may still be a long way off, but the candidate field is starting to shape up. Among those who have already declared their candidacy are former President Donald Trump, Florida Governor Ron DeSantis, former Vice President Mike Pence, and former South Carolina Governor Nikki Haley.

How will this all play out?

The Republican presidential primary is a series of state-by-state elections that determine who will be the party's nominee for president. The candidate who wins the most delegates in the primaries and caucuses will become the nominee.

Delegates are individuals chosen to represent their state or territory at the Republican National Convention. The number of delegates each state has is based on its population. Several key states — including California, Texas, Pennsylvania, and Florida — will see their delegate and electoral vote counts change in 2024 as a result of the decennial U.S. Census conducted in 2020.

The primaries and caucuses traditionally begin in February of an election year; however, it appears the Iowa Caucuses and New Hampshire Primaries will take place in January this time around.

Who are the leading candidates?

As you can see above, there are (once again) quite a few candidates running in the GOP primary for president. Yet one candidate has emerged as the clear favorite among primary voters:

That’s right, friends… former President Donald Trump is ahead by more than 2-to-1 over his nearest challenger (DeSantis) in national polling. And all of this is despite having THREE indictments levied against him in recent months, and the potential for more between now and Election Day 2024!

It remains to be seen if another challenger (DeSantis, Pence, Haley, etc.) will be able to close the gap in the months to come, or if the nomination is Trump’s to lose at this point.

Will there be any debates?

As in past cycles, the Republican National Committee has commissioned a series of official debates for candidates running in the GOP primary for president. Because of the sheer number of candidates running, however, the Party set a series of polling and donor thresholds for the debates to limit candidate participation.

For the first debate, scheduled for August 23rd in Milwaukee, the candidates who have already passed the RNC’s polling and donor thresholds are:

• former President Donald Trump*

• Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis

• former New Jersey Gov. Chris Christie

• South Carolina Sen. Tim Scott

• former South Carolina Gov. Nikki Haley

• North Dakota Gov. Doug Burgum

• tech entrepreneur Vivek Ramaswamy.

Others, such as former Vice President Mike Pence, have met one but not both of the thresholds. Trump has not committed to participating in any of the debates.

Thinking about running for political office? Phoenix Rising Consulting has 10+ years successfully helping GOP candidates nationwide with their political and advocacy efforts! Contact us today for more information or to request a proposal!

Everyone and their mother will write an analysis of the 2022 midterm elections. And they should. Consultants got it wrong. The media got it wrong. Pollsters got it wrong.

As for me? To be honest, I wasn’t quite sure what to expect.

Let me explain.

This is the FIRST political cycle in nearly two decades that I have not worked for a political candidate or cause in any form. I chose to sit out this cycle, I had opportunities to get involved and opted not to.

Those close to me know that I’ve never been a huge fan of former President Donald J. Trump. Nonetheless, I sucked it up and played the loyal foot soldier while he was in office because I was trained to put party first.

And I would be remiss if I didn’t mention Trump’s accomplishments: tax reform, criminal justice reform, and a booming economy.

But at the end of the day, history isn’t going to remember him for these actions. Instead, it will be his rhetoric, his antics, and his actions following his 2020 election loss.

In a typical midterm election, it is fairly common for the party in the minority to pick up seats in Congress. Add to that an unpopular president (Democrat Joe Biden) and an economy on the brink of a recession, and the ingredients were all in place for Republicans to retake the House and Senate by significant margins Tuesday night.

Until they didn’t. Not only have Democrats maintained control of the U.S. Senate, but they could potentially gain a seat (via the Georgia run-off), while Republicans will likely only have a bare majority in the House when all is said and done.

So what happened? In a word, Trump.

Most past presidents in recent history have left Washington gracefully, returning to life in the private sector without much fanfare. Over the past 50 years, you’ve had humanitarians (Jimmy Carter), entrepreneurs (Barack Obama), and even potential “First Husbands” (Bill Clinton).

Trump, on the contrary, refused to relinquish control of the Republican Party after losing the 2020 election. He challenged the legitimacy of the election results, supported a violent coup against a sitting Congress certifying those results, and added the concept of “election denialism” into the GOP credo.

Trump then set forth on a crusade to further reshape the Republican Party in his likeness. He meddled in several 2022 primary races, leaving the GOP with weak candidates and unpopular messaging for the general election. As a result, Republicans failed to take back several winnable governor’s races and U.S. Senate seats in states like Michigan, Pennsylvania, or Wisconsin — putting the party at a disadvantage heading into 2024.

Moreover, even with a razor-thin majority in the House (updated projections now have the GOP with a 2 or 3 seat majority), infighting among the GOP’s different factions has already threatened its ability to legislate in 2023. Already, there appears to be a battle for party leadership, with Minority Leader Kevin McCarthy's (R-CA) bid for Speaker being challenged by members of the House Freedom Caucus.

Similar efforts are being launched by GOP hardliners to delay the party’s Senate leadership elections and prevent current Minority Leader Mitch McConnell (R-KY) from being re-elected to another term.

None of this is to say that the Democrats don’t have their own work cut out for them, or that their unexpected victory in 2022 gives them a free pass to run roughshod over Washington.

But if there is one lesson that can be learned from 2022 it is that: the GOP can rise from the ashes and find success in 2024, so long as it doesn’t allow itself to be held hostage once again by Donald John Trump and his world of MAGA.

Ten years ago, Republicans faced crushing defeats at the presidential and U.S. Senate levels. Searching for answers and hoping to prevent these losses in the future, the Republican National Committee commissioned its now infamous “autopsy” of the 2012 election.

In the years since its release, some of the report’s recommendations have come to pass. The party’s massive investments into its voter targeting efforts and nationalized ground game, for example, are a direct result of the autopsy. Same with its successful wooing of oft-forgotten minority groups, including women, African-Americans, and Hispanics.

But many of the autopsy’s recommendations wouldn’t — or better yet, couldn’t — come to pass because of one man. That man is one Donald John Trump, and, well, you know his story.

Fast forward to today, and the Republican Party is reeling. In a year that should have been promising for Republicans, the GOP barely made a dent. In fact, it is ENTIRELY POSSIBLE that the Democrats will maintain control of the U.S. Senate with a (slightly) larger majority, while Republicans only take back the House with a razor-thin majority.

Fortunately, there’s no need to conduct another costly autopsy to determine what went wrong or how the party can move forward and find success in 2024.

Why? I can tell you exactly what would be in that autopsy, free of charge:

1. Dump the Trump

The nation’s 44th President had his moments. During his four years in office, Trump instituted much-needed tax reform, helped usher in major fixes to the nation’s criminal justice system, and oversaw a period of economic strength and stability for much of his tenure.

But for every positive step he took, the words that he spoke or posted on social media set him back four more. And it only got worse after he legitimately lost the 2020 election to President Joe Biden, challenged those results, and then supported a failed coup against Congress to prevent the certification of those results.

Then, after he still didn’t get his way, he further strengthened his hold on the GOP, holding it hostage and turning the 2022 elections into a referendum on his 2020 loss. Trump endorsed primary candidates who pledged their loyalty to him, promising to focus on “election integrity” and reshaping American culture rather than addressing the struggling post-COVID economy or rising inflation. And in doing so, he meddled in competitive primaries, ultimately leaving the GOP with a bad nominee and (in many cases) a general election loss.

The end result? Voters saw right through this gambit. Only TWO of Trump’s “hand-picked” Senate candidates won their races on Election Day — Ted Budd in North Carolina and J.D. Vance in Ohio. Moreover, Democrats were able to take advantage of Trump’s meddling and flip Pennsylvania’s Senate seat after Republicans nominated Trump-endorsed celebrity doctor Mehmet Oz over (party-preferred) businessman Dave McCormick.

The icing on the cake? After Trump launched vendetta campaigns against the “Impeachment 10” — a.k.a. the 10 House Republicans who voted for impeachment — four of them lost their 2022 primary bids to Trump-backed opponents. Well, turns out the joke’s on Trump, as voters ultimately chose the Democratic candidate in two of those districts during Tuesday’s elections (MI-3 and WA-3).

Unfortunately, Trump has all but confirmed his 2024 presidential bid, and it appears he will launch this campaign as early as the 15th. If Republicans truly want to take back Washington in 2024, they would stop giving Trump his 15 minutes of fame and not let him run roughshod over the party any longer.

2. “It’s the Economy, Stupid”

It’s been three decades since Democratic strategist James Carville first coined the term, and yet it remains one of the most relevant phrases in politics today.

Why? 2022 should have been a pocketbook election, and it wasn’t. The COVID-19 pandemic took a massive toll on the American economy, leading to rising inflation and a weakened stock market. Exit polls released on Election Day suggested that:

• Inflation was the most important issue to voters (31%);

• Two-thirds of voters (68%) believe the current state of the American economy is “not so good” or “poor”; and

• More voters trust Republicans (54%) than Democrats (42%) to handle inflation.

Republicans clearly failed to capitalize on this. And they failed to do so because they allowed their own agenda to trump (pun intended) that of the voters.

Case in point… whatever the purpose of this campaign ad is:

Ditto this introductory “rap video”":

While neither Blake Masters nor Linda Paulson won their respective races, I highly doubt their losses were a direct result of their questionable ad campaigns.

Rather, these candidates — like too many others in 2022 — likely failed to convince voters they could do a better job on the issues that mattered most to them than their Democratic counterparts.

3. Candidate Quality Matters

Further building upon the above, 2022 showed us (once again) that slapping an (R) after your name doesn’t make you a winner in a year expected to be favorable for Republicans.

This should have been a lesson learned a decade ago from the aforementioned GOP Autopsy. After all, a big part of the reason Republicans failed to win the U.S. Senate in both 2010 and 2012 was that it ran weak candidates like Christine O’Donnell, Sue Lowden, and Richard Mourdock in winnable seats in those cycles.

Except it apparently didn’t. And to make matters worse, 2022 was a year in which voters really didn’t care about party affiliation because they flat-out didn’t like either party! According to exit polls, just 44% of voters had a favorable opinion of either party. Moreover, a majority of respondents said that the two parties were “too extreme” (51% Democratic Party, 52% Republican Party).

Running weak candidates particularly hurt the party in swing states like Georgia and Pennsylvania, both of which featured competitive Senate and governor’s races in 2022.

• Georgia: Gov. Brian Kemp (R, not backed by Trump) won re-election over Stacey Abrams (D), 53% to 46%. Hershel Walker (R, endorsed by Trump) trails incumbent Sen. Raphael Warnock (D), 48.5% to 49.4%. That race is headed to a Dec. 6th runoff.

• Pennsylvania: Doug Mastriano (R, endorsed by Trump but not party) lost to Josh Shapiro (D), 42% to 56%. Mehmet Oz (R, endorsed by Trump and party) lost to John Fetterman (D), 47% to 51%.

In both of these swing states, the more extreme the candidate was, the worse they ended up faring in the general election. In fact, the only one of the four Republicans who won outright was the one (Kemp) who fought against election denialism.

Nominating credible candidates matters. Voters aren’t going to elect candidates who plan “40 days of fasting and prayer” as part of their campaign strategy. Not now, not ever.

4. Fraud? What Fraud?

One of the biggest takeaways from the 2020 elections was the idea that an election could be “stolen” or rigged to benefit a particular candidate (In this case, Joe Biden and the Democratic Party).

In reality, it cannot.

Yet, as already noted, Trump and Republicans doubled down on this concept in 2022. And it backfired on them, in spectacular fashion.

None of this is to say that election security and voter fraud aren’t serious issues. In fact, significant majorities in both parties support election reform — including requiring voter ID at the polls.

After Trump lost his re-election in 2020, he implored the GOP to pass restrictive voting laws — many of which reversed policies put in place during the pandemic — to “stop the steal” with any future elections. And they did.

So was there fraud in 2022? As of this writing, there have not been any reports of widespread fraud or major issues with the 2022 elections. In fact, many of the so-called “election deniers” who lost their races this week have already publicly acknowledged their defeat and conceded.

This is a good thing, and it correlates with the will of the voters who reportedly were not too concerned about American election security headed into Tuesday. A whopping 8 in 10 Americans were reportedly very or somewhat confident that their state’s elections were fair and accurate according to exit polls — numbers that do not suggest any nefarious action was afoot.

Americans should always be diligent and work together to make sure our elections remain safe and secure. But, like with Trump, this is another issue that needs to be pushed aside if the party is to have any success in 2024.

The 2020 elections were unlike any we’ve experienced in recent years, and not just because of the final outcomes. Rather, the toll that the pandemic took on the political campaigning industry is one that will shape its future for years to come — for good, and for bad. 

Almost overnight, campaigns were forced to pull a 180 in their strategic efforts, drop…

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I am writing these words fully knowing that the next President of the United States has yet to be determined.

But what can nonetheless be concluded from Tuesday’s results is that Republicans will have a difficult time winning the Presidency in the future or taking back the House of Representatives unless the party is willing to expand beyond its “MAGA” …

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My friends, we’ve finally made it to Election Day! Sometime over the next few hours - or, more likely, days - we’ll know whether or not President Donald J. Trump will remain at 1600 Pennsylvania Avenue for another four years or be replaced by former Vice President Joe Biden in January. Some general thoughts as the night progresses:

The Early Vote Effect

…

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Yet that “trust” isn’t necessarily because they believe Biden et. al. are the right people to solve these problems. Instead, it’s because they aren’t buying int…

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This past Monday marked the 99th anniversary of #WomensEqualityDay, a celebration of the day in which women finally earned the right to vote in federal elections. And in many ways, #WomensEqualityDay symbolizes just how far we have come as a society.

It may have taken a century, but today women hold more of the cards in politics than you might think. For…

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